1. “Technology Trigger” — The first phase of a hype cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations” — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. “Trough of Disillusionment” — Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
4. “Slope of Enlightenment” — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
5. “Plateau of Productivity” — A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stableand evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

A blog post by Vovici, explains that this cycle is also true for market research technologies:

Focus groups and surveys are mature and productive. They’ve been around a while and we have a really good understanding of when and how to use them. On the down side, they are so tried and true that the shine has worn off and both researchers and clients are looking for the next big thing.

Online panels and surveys have emerged from the disappointment phase a bit bruised, but stronger for it. We now have a better understanding of what to do and what not to do when using these methods and can now start considering them another piece in the productive market research arsenal.

Market Research Online Communities (MROC), social media research, text analytics, and sentiment analysis are all at different stages between Inflated Expectations and Disillusionment. There is no better evidence than the recent AdAge article asking if Social Media Research Replace Surveys? I can’t even get through the article without wanting to wanting to stick my fingers down my throat in disgust. It simply reeks of hype.

Then we come to the younger technologies, so full of hope and promise, mobile based market research and research gaming. They are both fresh and relatively unknown. There is a lot of experimentation to do and best practices to establish, but this also means that there are a lot of mistakes to be made while these methodologies mature into productive technologies.

The question is, how fast will they go through this inevitable cycle? For mobile research, I think the cycle will be short. We have already identified what differentiates it from the more traditional methods and the process and tools are familiar enough to lessen the learning curve. The same cannot be said for research gaming. We are out of our depth here folks. Most market researchers are unfamiliar with gaming dynamics and it will take a lot of outside help to make this a successful research method.

The publishers of VUE recently ditched the glossy paper based magazine format and went all digital. The user interface is a little clumsy, I’m not a fan of digital magazines that can’t let go of their heritage paper formatting, but at least I will be able to link to the article from my blog when it is published in May.

I am still looking into attending the MRIA conference in Kelowna that same month. I have until the end of April to decide and I am taking full advantage of it.

According to a report from ReadItLater, while most save for later actions happen during work and evening hours when people are most active online and at work and slightly less so through the evening, most of the reading happens during more leisurely hours and the patterns differ when between computer, iPhone, and iPad devices.

Computer reading patterns:

iPhone reading patterns:

iPad reading patterns:

These numbers indicate how people use their mobile devices in comparison to the computer and what kind of mindset they are in when they use these devices. It is interesting to note the singular time spike of the iPad.

• Breakfast – iPhone
• Morning Commute – iPhone
• Work – Computer
• Evening Commute – iPhone
• Personal/Couch Time – iPhone, iPad

McDonalds in the UK will be accepting contactless card payments this summer. Right now this covers fobs and RFID enabled credit cards, but soon this will also include phones once manufacturers start building them into their smart phone devices.

Visa has a phone case that works like a credit card in the the testing stages now. Here is a video showing how the system works:

After testing the system in a few select markets, Starbucks will be launching their smartphone payment app across the US. The system requires that you link it to a gift card or a rewards card, but once you have an amount of credit linked to the app you can start prepaying for your orders and showing a barcode generated on your phone to your favorite barista to get your coffee.

Pretty cool.

It is efforts like these, by major commerce brands that will bring mobile commerce to fruition. When companies make it easy for us to do away with multiple pieces of ultimately useless pastic, then we’ll be closer to having the phone become the standard conduit of payment.

Most companies that either conduct or commission research projects come face to face with this issue on a frequent basis. I always say that the research is the easy part. Going about making the data you gathered organized and useful is the hard part. Fast Company recently had a great article with some advice on synthesizing qualitative data into insights. Here are some highlights:

1. Get the data off the laptop and into the world. Write data points on post-its and stick them all around the room. Print out pictures. Make timelines on a white board. Do anything that makes sense to turn the data into physical pieces.
2. Identify the patterns and anomalies. Start grouping the commonalities. Find the patterns. Call out things that are quirky and investigate to see if they’re part of a larger pattern or particular to a subgroup. Sometimes strange things can lead somewhere amazing.
3. Build models of your findings. If you cannot abstract, articulate, and apply them to the task at hand, then maybe you should go back to the drawing board. Keep drawing models and apply them to some paper prototypes. See if any magic happens.

While this article was design strategy oriented, it doesn’t mean that you can’t apply the methodology to other areas. Think about how you can use this when sorting through qualitative data for product or marketing strategy purposes.

• Instant win campaigns
• Discounts and incentives
• Post Purchase feedback

Take a look. View full screen. Learn a little more about mobile advertising.

As promised, here are the slides:

The infamous Black Friday in the US represented another milestone for QR code usage. The biggest shopping day of year resulted in 30 times more scans than a year ago. That’s 30 times more people finding product information on the go. Thirty times more people finding out where else to get the sold out hot new toy. Thirty times more people reading product reviews while shopping. And 30 times more people finding out what accessories are available for that great tech product everyone is talking about. That’s a lot, but what types of products are they scanning?

(I apologize for the size, it was the largest they had)

Almost 50% of scans come from the categories of Health and Beauty, Grocery, and Books. Because the channel is still very young I think this is more indicative of availability rather than what people actually want to scan. It will be fun to see how this develops as time progresses.

Of course, people asked if I was going to post my slides. Here they are in all of their glory:

• Mobile Computing – it’s not just about mobile phones anymore, think tablets and netbooks too. According to Nielsen, smartphones are taking up more and more market share and that isn’t likely to stop anytime soon
• Cloud Computing – these days work can take place anywhere and more and more companies are embracing the idea of virtual workplaces. As the importance of location decreases, the need for access from anywhere increases.
• Social Communication and Collaboration – this encompasses publishing (youtube), wikis, networking, and feedback mechanisms. We are seeing more and more from this trend with companies working with online panels, likeminded brands creating new products together, and organizations trying to develop one to one communication channels that actually provide results on both sides.
• Video – the written word is so over. If you’re thinking about revamping your print based collateral in the near future, then you may want to consider funneling some of that budget towards a video instead. By 2013, 25% of the content people consume will be dominated by pictures, audio, and video. (Speaking of which, I need to brush up on my video editing skills)
• Analytics – social analytics are the holy grail right now, there is no clear way to measure the strength of your social media presence and how that translates into sales. Quant analysts are also looking at new methodologies and algorithms to more accurately measure their observations. A statistician’s work is never done.
• Context Aware Computing – this is about computers anticipating a user’s needs rather than just reacting to a user’s needs. By analyzing time, place, history and other factors computers can actually become more useful. Developers of automated teaching programs have found that computers which can correctly identify and react to a pupil’s moods have much higher success rates.
• Flash Memory – Smaller size, lower heat factors, faster speeds… People already have this in their waif-like Apple products, but get ready to start seeing it everywhere.
• Smart Environments – Ubiquitous computing is quite here yet, but it is on it’s way. RFIDs and other technologies, scary in some ways, awesome in others enable objects and systems to react and anticipate your presence and needs. The uses for these devices can be as simple as checking into your hotel room or place of work to as complicated as completely automating your home and energy usage.

While these trends are a great place to start creating future strategies and tactics with your company, always be aware of the things that will take everyone by surprise. We can anticipate a lot, but sometimes a fast reaction is priceless.