Research Tech and the Hype Cycle
March 22, 2011The hype cycle can be attributed to just about any technology. The first company to coin the term was Gartner in 1995, when they proposed that all new technology goes through a maturity cycle that begins with inflated expectations and ends with actually productive usage. The stages of the cycle are as follows:
- “Technology Trigger” — The first phase of a hype cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
- “Peak of Inflated Expectations” — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
- “Trough of Disillusionment” — Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
- “Slope of Enlightenment” — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
- “Plateau of Productivity” — A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stableand evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
A blog post by Vovici, explains that this cycle is also true for market research technologies:
Focus groups and surveys are mature and productive. They’ve been around a while and we have a really good understanding of when and how to use them. On the down side, they are so tried and true that the shine has worn off and both researchers and clients are looking for the next big thing.
Online panels and surveys have emerged from the disappointment phase a bit bruised, but stronger for it. We now have a better understanding of what to do and what not to do when using these methods and can now start considering them another piece in the productive market research arsenal.
Market Research Online Communities (MROC), social media research, text analytics, and sentiment analysis are all at different stages between Inflated Expectations and Disillusionment. There is no better evidence than the recent AdAge article asking if Social Media Research Replace Surveys? I can’t even get through the article without wanting to wanting to stick my fingers down my throat in disgust. It simply reeks of hype.
Then we come to the younger technologies, so full of hope and promise, mobile based market research and research gaming. They are both fresh and relatively unknown. There is a lot of experimentation to do and best practices to establish, but this also means that there are a lot of mistakes to be made while these methodologies mature into productive technologies.
The question is, how fast will they go through this inevitable cycle? For mobile research, I think the cycle will be short. We have already identified what differentiates it from the more traditional methods and the process and tools are familiar enough to lessen the learning curve. The same cannot be said for research gaming. We are out of our depth here folks. Most market researchers are unfamiliar with gaming dynamics and it will take a lot of outside help to make this a successful research method.
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